’10 to Track’ Globetrotting Friday (11/2) – USL playoffs, LigaMX, then we’re off to see the world

The ten most important matches to follow, for us – the newish American fans of the global game.

On Friday’s, schedules run a little lighter.  Noob takes the opportunity to hit up the best local games, and then it’s off to soccer hinterlands less-known!

Come, jet-set with Noob.  The bags of peanuts in-flight are HYOOJ.

  1. Louisville FC vs. New York Red Bulls II – United Soccer League playoffs

Time for the Eastern Conference Final!  Defending champions Louisville host the Red Bull reserve teams.  They finished the regular season #2 and #5, respectively.

Louisville’s been clicking on both sides of both for weeks so, to the tune of nine straight wins.  The defense has been quite good, the offense – phenomenal.

NRYB Jr. have won five straight.    They’ve been comparable on defense, if not quite as dominant on offense.

It’s an interesting twist.   Through most of the regular season, they were both scoring like gangbusters, but with NYRB doing so very much at the expense of defense.  Now Red Bulls have switched their habits around.

No matter which style NY2 play, LFC are the clear fave.  Winner gets either Orange County or Phoenix for the title.   (7:30 PM EST, ESPN+)

RESULT:    L’ville  5-1       Devon Williams with two goals in two minutes

Image result for letter B tiger

 

 

 

Looks like we know which club Number B is rooting for.  Awwwww!

B.  Morelia vs. UANL Tigres – Liga MX

Three matches to go in the Apertura (first half-season).  And since each of the two half-seasons are only 17 matches long, it means things in the table are tight.  Top eight make the Liguilla (postseason tournament).

Morelia’s in 7th, but their numbers don’t make them look like a Playoff team.  The offense is borderline, but the defense is bottom quartile-caliber.  Still, they’re trending the right way.  After not winning a match for more than a month straight, they’re now winners of three in a row.  Those three were against bottom-half teams, but it’s still something.

Tigres are #8.  Two teams trail them by just a point.   They’ve not won in their last four, the defense having completely fallen apart (11 goals allowed).

9th-place Pachuca is going to pass at least one of these two.  So if one of these two loses today, Noob considers it an elimination match of sorts.   (9:00 PM, Univision Deportes)

  1. Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lille – France Ligue 1

Hard to believe PSG is looking like they might get eliminated from the current Champions League at the group stage.   They’re not having any trouble in their domestic league.   11-0-0, eight points up on #B Lille in the table already.

Lille sport an above average offense and defense.    No reason to think they’ll have any trouble finishing in the top three and qualify for the 2019-20 Champions League.  They just won’t look like it today.   PSG 3-1 today.

RESULT:   PSG   2-1     Mbappe with a goal and an assist

  1. Al Ahly vs. Esperance – CAF Champions League

The Final!    Two matches, home and away, for the club title in Africa.

Al Ahly are the #1 team in all Africa.  It doesn’t even seem to be particularly close.   Noob’s Elo ratings-source footballdatabase.com indicated it.  So does my newer one for Elo-ish numbers – soccerverse.com.  (The former has been down for long enough recently that I’m worried it’s gone for good.)

They’re well down the table in their domestic league so far this year, but that’s mostly by virtue of having played far fewer matches than most teams there.  The international play leads to a lot of postponements for them.   Extrapolate their basic stats out and they’re easily performing like a top-four club.

They host what may well be the #2 club on the continent.  This looks like an awful matchup for the Tunisians.  They’re struggling on defense in their league, and Ahly is just relentless on offense.   Ahly by two on their own pitch today.

RESULT:   Ahly   3-1           Walid Soliman scored twice on penalties in a match that also featured a third penalty score

Image result for math is dumb

 

Mathing.

 

I know, right?

  1. El Entag El Harby vs. Smouha – Egyptian Premier

You know, as long as we’re here!

Top two finishers qualify for the next Champions League.  Right now, these two are #B and #3, respectively.  ENEH have played a game or two more than the teams around them in the table.  They’re not going to stay this high in all likelihood.   They don’t score enough, plain and simple.

Smouha, however, look to have the firepower to at least flirt with a top-two finish.  They will be hard-pressed to catch #1 El Zamalek (best O and D in the country) or hold of Al Ahly.  But so far, Smouha looks very balanced and sound.

RESULT:   2-2        Smouha blows an 0-2 halftime lead

  1. URA vs. Nyamityobora – Uganda Premier

Uganda’s top flite Is a league on the move.  They just cracked the CAF rankings for the first time recently, appearing at #18.   They’d have to move up a few more notches to qualify two teams to Champions League, but it’s a start.

It’s too early to perhaps say much, fewer than a half dozen matches into the season.  but #5 URA appear to be a Small Ball team – pack it in on defense, don’t try to even score much themselves.

Noob believes The Nyamity-ville Horror-obora just got Promoted to top tier this year.  Judging by their utter lack of defense, they’ll be headed right back down.

RESULT:   0-0

Image result for that was horrible gifWhat, the play on words there?

Quiet, Adam Scott!   Don’t you have a “Krampus” sequel to go shoot?

  1. 1 de Agosto vs. Hulia – Angola Girabola

Congrats to Angola’s domestic top league!   Big jump coming in the 2019-20 rankings – #17 all the way to #9.

1dA didn’t need the league to have an extra berth into Champions League last season like it will get soon.  They only lost one match all last season.   How?  By only giving up eight goals in 28 matches.   Stifling.

Hulia finished 6th, as perfectly average as they could be, statistically.

RESULT:         is now slated for Sun., 11/4

That African stint can be so draining.  Let’s take a break for the third-ever installment of —

Noob’s Sandwich Reviewoobs!

@MLS on Twitter asked the important, obvious question.  Essentially, is a hot dog, in fact, a sandwich?

Among most noble apes, a sandwich is defined as any meat or other filling between two SLICES of bread.  Buns are NOT slices, or Noob’s name is John Montagu.

To be fair, one can find definitions and contexts where any pieces of bread – sliced or otherwise – are called “sandwich”.  I’m not here to argue against that.

Because it’s already been establish in Amuricuhn court of LAW.

In 2006, A Worcester, MS judge ruled against Panera in a heated case regarding a non-compete clause in a mall food court.  The judge allowed the mall could rent to Qdoba, that tacos and burritos were NOT sandwiches.  His or Her Honor formally told Panera, “Sit on it, Potsy” in the ruling and summary.

What’s fun is that most of that is true.

So — is a hot dog a sandwich?  No.  Heretical.  Illegal!

@MLS, thanks for the picture of the cute kid.  But Noob rates your sandwich question  at a mere two and a half out of five sandwiches on the Noob Sandwich Reviewoob sandwich rating scale.

  1. Ballymena United vs. Glenavon – Northern Ireland Football League Premiership

Next, we jet-set to Europe.  This is one of Europe’s very weakest domestic leagues.  In fact, it’s only semi-professional.  But hey — they’re playing!

They get just the one berth into Champions League.  Glenavon are #1 now, but they only lead Linfield by a point.  They lead the league in scoring, and trail just Linfield in defensive prowess (albeit by a lot).

#3 Ballymena are nicely balanced, but are ten points behind their league-leading hosts.  At least they’re in a position to perhaps get one of the league’s two automatic invites to Europa League.

RESULT:   Bally   2-1

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Mr. Bean always flies first class for NIFL Premiership.

  1. Kukesi vs. Flamutari – Albania Superliga

Our second and final stop on our European league takes us to the #34 league in UEFA.  Below average, but a damn sight higher than Northern Ireland.  Wheeeeeeee!

These are the #3 and #5 clubs there currently.  Kukesi are only four points in back of league leaders Skenderbau Korce, but that team’s been the power there for forever.  Even recently getting a 10-year ban from FIFA over match-fixing hasn’t seemingly slowed that bunch much.

If recent history holds, Kukesi won’t catch the Banned Ones or #B Tirana.  Flamutari are far less likely.   When the defense gets down to league average, those clubs won’t be able to stop the perennial title contenders.

RESULT:   Flamutari   1-2

  1. Melbourne City vs. Sydney FC – Australia A-League

The league season is just getting (Down) underway in OZ.  Yet already a big trophy has been awarded.   League defending champs Sydney FC just lost in the FFA Cup final to Adelaide.

Melbourne City finished #3 last year, a nice push for a team that’s historically only average there.  They were either lucky or tough or both, too, as they didn’t score a lot compared to their peers.

RESULT:   Sydney   0-3     Paulo Retre with a goal an an assist

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So long from Melbourne!  

Apparently so violent, their club may soon get a Copa Libertadores invitation.

’10 to Track’ Midweek Edition soccer matches (4/24-26) – bring us Champions Leagueness!

Time for Midweek Madness!   OK, Noob doesn’t really think there’s any more madness Tuesday-Thursday than any other time.  But chicks dig alliteration.  I’m sure of it.

Tuesday, 4/24

  1. Liverpool vs. AS Roma – UEFA Champions League

The Semifinals are here!  These two both surprised world soccer giants last round to advance.  This is the first match of a two-legged tie.

Noobites, you can of course find all manner of highly-detailed previews on many sites.  Our purpose here is fun, learning/increased awareness, and packaged in zaniness many times.  But Noob will offer up one particular angle.

Footballdatabase.com appears to use the chess world’s ELO formula -or a modified version of it- to rate clubs.  I find it very accurate.  Today, these two rate as 1966 and 1872, respectively.  Think of, oh, borderline Grandmaster vs. very solid Expert.

So, based on evidence I’ve casually tracked since starting this site, Noob’s calling Liverpool not quite a 1.5 goal favorite today.  Take it to the bank!  (Of course, I don’t think soccer betting is run with point spreads, so maybe just stick it in an old mattress.)   (2:45 PM Eastern, FS 1)

RESULT:   Liverpool   5-2

Image result for elo rating formula

B.  Penn FC vs. Nashville FC – USL

Penn FC were Harrisburg City Islanders previously. This is not a new club, just a rebranding.  Nashville are an expansion club.

Penn did not win any of their first matches. Nashville is a .500 club so far, but Noob thinks they’ve been either lucky or gritty so far.   Penn gets their first W today.

RESULT:   0-0

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Gotta be honest, Number B.  Not the most creative rebranding there.

 

 

 

Deeper Dive:  any of the three Copa Libertadores matches, Bulgarian FA Cup semifinal, China FA Cup matches, or either League of Ireland (not FA) Cup match.

Wednesday, 4/25

  1. Guadalajara vs. Toronto FC – CONCACAF Champions League

The Final!  Guadalajara took the first league in Canadia 1-2.  Toronto can’t just win 0-1 today in order to tie things up.  They’d lose on the away-goals tiebreaker.

Toronto have had a miserable start to their MLS season.  They’re out of gas.  The Guad Squad is going to get to put on a show.  Rather than just sit on the ball and milk their lead, this feels to Noob like a 3-0 rout.   (9:30 PM, Univision Deportes)

RESULT:   Toronto 1-2 in regulation      But Guad wins the title 4-2 in pk’s.   Heartbreak for Toronto.  Guad should’ve been down a man to a red card much of the second half when one of their players punched a Toronto player right in the stomach, 10′ from a ref with a clear view.  Not even a foul called.

  1. Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid – UEFA Champions League

Two +2000 Grandmaster clubs.  Noob might’ve thought the winner will be a heavy favorite to take the title.  But Bayern didn’t completely dominate a Sevilla team that they should’ve in the Quarters.  And Real nearly blew a big lead to Juventus.

Bayern have been scoring – at least in league play – like gangbusters.  Noob’s calling this one as 3-1 for the home side, as they can control the pace at home.   (2:45 PM, FS1, ESPN Deportes)

RESULT:   Real   1-2

Image result for grandmaster flash

 

 

Grandmaster Flash carried an ELO rating of a billion.

  1. Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras – Copa Libertadores

South America’s version of Champions League continues its group stage.  The top two finishers from each Group of four will advance.

Boca are Argentina’s #1-ranked entry into this event.  Palmeiras are the #3 from Brazil.  Yet Palmeiras are the ones leading this Group, and by two over their hosts today.  They’d take a draw in a heartbeat.

Boca will look to push and play for the win, get more distance in the table over Atletico Junior of Colombia.   (8:45 PM, Fox Deportes)

RESULT:   Palmeiras   0-2

  1. FC Tokyo vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima – J1 League

The league season is almost ten games in, yet Noob wonders if this is the first Track-worthy match we’ve seen from Japan.

Hiroshima finished near the bottom of the table last year.  Now?  They’ve not lost once. FC Tokyo finished low enough last year that Noob thought perhaps they’d just been promoted from J2.  Even at #B, they trail FCT by nine in the table.

RESULT:   Tokyo   3-1

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Hiroshima’s mascots striking poses

  1. Zlin vs. Jablonec – Czech FA Cup

There are many FA Cups matches being played around Europe today.  The Czech Cup semifinal today pits two teams from the #13 league in Europe, the highest ranking represented this week.

Zlin are in 9th in the league this year.  Given their awful GD, Noob’s not sure how they’ve managed even that.  They’ll get all they can handle from their 6th-place guests.

Aaaand then the winner will get smooshed by Slavia Prague in the Final.    And then they’ll pee their pants, the end.

RESULT:   Jablonec   0-1

Deeper Dive:  #3 Ranheim vs. #1 Brann, Norway Eliteserien; #3 Maritzburg United vs. #1 Mamelodi Sundowns, South Africa Premier; #2 Suwon Bluewings vs. #3 Gyeongnam FC, South Korea K1 League; #4 Prachuap vs. #3 Chiangrai United, Thai 1 League; any China FA Cup matches, Brazil FA Cup Round of 16 matches, or FA Cup semis from Bulgaria, Cyprus, or Denmark

Thursday, 4/26

  1. Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid – Europa League

UEFA’s secondary continental tournament has reached its Semifinals.  This is the first match of a two-legged tie.

Arsenal better hope they get some sort of lift perhaps trying to win this thing as a tribute to now-departing manager Arsene Wenger, because Atletico is probably by far the strongest team remaining.  He’d been with the club over 20 years, but either gracefully stepped aside or was forced out less than a week ago.   (3:05 PM, FS1, ESPN Deportes)

RESULT:   1-1     Atletico had a player and their manager kicked out 10 minutes into the match.  Arsenal still couldn’t take care of business.

Image result for arsene wenger sad face

  1. Lillestrom vs. Sarpsborg – Norway Super Cup

Super Cups usually happen right as the league season is beginning, pitting last year’s FA Cup champs against the defending league champs.  This one was delayed because of wintry conditions.  Shock me.

Lillestrom only finished 12th in league last year.  They qualified for this by beating Sarpsborg in the FA Cup final.  Sarpsurg has started a little slowly this season, but it’s very early.  Lillestrom – who host today – aren’t doing any better than in 2017.

RESULT:   Sarpsborg   0-1     Congrats!

  1. Al Ahly vs. El Zamalek – Egypt Premier

Noob ends the midweek Track honoring the champions of Africa’s #1 league.  With two matches to go, Al Ahly lead the next team up by a mind-boggling 21 points in the table.

Zamalek are in 3rd.  This is their final league match.  They can’t catch #B Ismaily for a Champions League berth, but they could themselves be passed by #4 Al Masry.  3rd place gets into the Confederations Cup, Africa’s version of Europa League.

RESULT:   Zamalek   1-2

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OK, that’s mind-boggling

 

 

Deeper Dive:  any of the Copa Libertadores matches; Denmark’s FA Cup semifinal; #B Partizan vs. #4 Radnicki, Serbia Superliga, #3 Hapoel Katamon Jerusalem vs. #1 Hapoel Tel Aviv, Israel Leumit Liga (second-tier)